From 21a46acd67198885ea865dc7fd16181e69d7af58 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: rahelMA Date: Fri, 10 Jul 2026 10:34:21 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 1/3] PRISMA SA changes --- config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv | 17 +++++++++++++++++ config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv | 13 +++++++++++++ main.gms | 4 ++++ modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/datainput.gms | 21 +++++++++++++++++++++ 4 files changed, 55 insertions(+) create mode 100755 config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv create mode 100755 config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv diff --git a/config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv b/config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv new file mode 100755 index 0000000000..34ca42a10f --- /dev/null +++ b/config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +title;start;copyConfigFrom;cm_targetDelay;cm_ReferenceCapacities;cm_LTSexcludeRegi;carbonprice;carbonpriceRegi;path_gdx;path_gdx_ref;path_gdx_bau;path_gdx_carbonprice;path_gdx_refpolicycost;cm_startyear;cm_multigasscen;description;CES_parameters;slurmConfig;regionmapping;extramappings_historic;cm_rcp_scen;subsidizeLearning;cm_prtpScen;capitalMarket;cm_iterative_target_adj;cm_budgetCO2from2020;cm_budgetCO2_absDevTol;cm_taxCO2_functionalForm;cm_taxCO2_startyear;cm_peakBudgYr;cm_taxCO2_regiDiff;cm_emiscen;c_regi_earlyreti_rate;c_NearTermProjectCompletion;cm_fetaxscen;cm_bioenergy_SustTax;cm_33EW;cm_33OAE;cm_33_OAE_limit_EEZ;cm_frac_NetNegEmi;c_ccsinjecratescen;c_ccscapratescen;cm_CESMkup_build;cm_wasteIncinerationCCSshare;techpol;regipol;cm_NucRegiPol;cm_CoalRegiPol;cm_altFeEmiFac;cm_GDPpopScen;cm_demScen;cm_oil_scen;cm_gas_scen;cm_coal_scen;c_techAssumptScen;cm_nucscen;cm_so2tax_scen;cm_LU_emi_scen;cm_tradecostBio;cm_maxProdBiolc;cm_1stgen_phaseout;c_SSP_forcing_adjust;cm_APssp;cm_CESMkup_ind;cm_EDGEtr_scen;c_changeProdCost +# H12 SSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate,AMT,compileInTests,calibrateSSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road.;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-NDC-LTS;1,AMT,2;;;;;NDC;netZero;;SSP2-NDC;SSP2-NDC;;SSP2-NDC;2040;2;SSP2-NDC-LTS: Long-term-strategy, this scenario follows the NDCs until 2035 and starts rescaling the carbon prices from 2040 to reach national net-zero pledges.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix4ICEban;1 +SSP2-NDC;1,AMT,2;;;;;NDC;;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;;SSP2-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 +SSP2-NPi;1,AMT,2;;;;;NPi;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;NPi2018;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1; +SSP2-NPi2025;1,AMT,compileInTests,2;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi reflects currently implemented policies, while fulfilling near-term feasibility and long-term plausibility assessments. Emissions trajectories are aligned with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. Carbon prices are constant in the mid- and long-term.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-PkBudg650;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century.;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1 +SSP2-PkBudg750;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg750: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century.;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1 +SSP2-PkBudg750_wo100EJBiobound;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg750_wo100EJBiobound: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 750 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century.;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;750;;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;off;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1 +SSP2-PkBudg1000;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1150 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century.;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;;75;2080;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 +SSP2-EcBudg500;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2035;2;SSP2-EcBudg400: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes an end-of-century budget of 400 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2100. This is a high overshoot scenario with delayed climate policy.;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;5;500;5;exponential;70;;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;1;1;5000;0;;;;2060.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;200;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 +SSP2-rollBack;1,AMT,2;;;;;none;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;;SSP2-rollBack: This rollback of climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called Middle of the Road.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;0;;;1;;;;;;;;;;none;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1;1 +SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;2030;;All countries implement current policies, NDCs (2030/2035), and Long-Term Strategies (LTS). Climate ambition follows stated national commitments, with carbon prices reflecting near-term policies and gradually increasing mitigation incentives.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;prisma;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;2030;;Climate ambition is rolled back across all countries in differentiated ways. NDC and LTS milestones are delayed by 10 years for transition leaders, 20 for diversifying economies, and by 30 for fossil-dependent economies and net-zero ambitions are weakened.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-LateReawakening;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back_2026-07-06_21.40.55/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;2040;;Countries initially follow the rollback pathway, then resume LTS targets after a delay (around 2035–2040). Regions attempt to return to original climate objectives, requiring accelerated mitigation and possible adjustment of targets for feasibility.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-StayingAlive;1;;;prisma_SA;;exogenous;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-MeetAspirations_2026-07-07_13.42.23/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back_2026-07-06_21.40.55/fulldata.gdx;;2030;2;Same policy ambition as the rollback scenario, but investments in renewables, electricity storage, grid expansion, and end-use electrification remain at levels of the ambition scenario to test low-regret transition strategies.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;9;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix4ICEban;1 diff --git a/config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv b/config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv new file mode 100755 index 0000000000..ad84213def --- /dev/null +++ b/config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +title;start;copyConfigFrom;continueFromHere;magpieIter;config/scenario_config.csv;no_ghgprices_land_until;cfg_mag$gms$s15_elastic_demand;cfg_mag$gms$s29_treecover_scenario_start;cfg_mag$gms$s29_treecover_scenario_target;cfg_mag$gms$s29_treecover_target;cfg_mag$gms$s59_scm_scenario_start;cfg_mag$gms$s59_scm_scenario_target;cfg_mag$gms$s59_scm_target;cfg_mag$gms$c60_1stgen_biodem;cfg_mag$gms$s56_limit_ch4_n2o_price;cfg_mag$gms$c15_food_scenario;cfg_mag$gms$s44_bii_target;cfg_mag$gms$c44_bii_decrease;cfg_mag$gms$s44_start_year;cfg_mag$gms$s56_fader_cpriceaff_start;cfg_mag$gms$s56_fader_cpriceaff_end +SSP2-EcBudg500;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-plant|nocc_hist;y2030;1;2050;2070;0.02;2050;2070;0.2;const2030;734;;0;0;2050;2040;2050 +SSP2-NDC;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp4p5;y2150;1;;;0;;;0;const2030;734;;0;1;2030;2030;2030 +SSP2-NDC-LTS;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp4p5;y2030;1;;;0;;;0;const2030;734;;0;1;2030;2030;2030 +SSP2-NPi;0;;;;SSP2|NPI|AR-natveg|nocc_hist;y2150;1;;;0;;;0;const2030;734;;0;1;2030;2030;2030 +SSP2-NPi2025;1;;;;SSP2|NPI|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp4p5;y2150;1;;;0;;;0;const2030;734;;0;1;2030;2030;2030 +SSP2-PkBudg1000;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp2p6;y2030;1;;;0.01;;;0.1;const2030;734;;0;0;2030;2030;2030 +SSP2-PkBudg750;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp1p9;y2030;1;;;0.03;;;0.3;const2030;734;;0;0;2030;2030;2030 +SSP2-rollBack;0;;;;SSP2|NPI-revert|AR-natveg|nocc_hist;y2150;1;;;0;;;0;const2030;734;;0;1;2030;2030;2030 +SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-LateReawakening;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-StayingAlive;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; diff --git a/main.gms b/main.gms index a9fad5914a..52abfbdbde 100755 --- a/main.gms +++ b/main.gms @@ -1449,6 +1449,10 @@ $setglobal cm_NDC_targetYear 2030, 2035 !! def = "2030, 2035" *' * Exceptions apply for some regions: the delay might deviate by 5 years due to model 10-year timesteps after 2060 $setglobal cm_targetDelay off !! def = "off" +*' cm_ReferenceCapacities "using capacity pathways of reference scenario" +*' * (prisma): PRISMA Staying Alive: use MeetAspiration as reference scenario for wind and solar capacity pathways by using "prisma_SA" +$setglobal cm_ReferenceCapacities off !! def = "off" + *' cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit "sets regional upper limit for CO2 prices in NDC realization" [requires 45_carbonprice = NDC]" *' This serves to not force regions to reach NDC emissions targets at extremly high CO2 prices in the near-term. *' Instead, regions go "as close as still plausible" to their NDC targets. diff --git a/modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/datainput.gms b/modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/datainput.gms index 3383c64fef..567f527d29 100644 --- a/modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/datainput.gms +++ b/modules/40_techpol/NPi2025/datainput.gms @@ -28,6 +28,27 @@ p40_TechBound(ttot,all_regi,te) = smax(ttot2$(ttot2.val le ttot.val) , f40_TechB p40_TechBound(ttot,all_regi,"wind") = f40_TechBound(ttot,all_regi,"%cm_NPi_version%","wind"); p40_ElecBioBound("2030",regi) = p40_TechBound("2030",regi,"bioigcc"); + +*** Follow technology pathways of a reference run, e.g., as in PRISMA WP6 Staying Alive +$ifThen "%cm_ReferenceCapacities%" == "prisma_SA" + +*** PRISMA Staying Alive: +Parameter p40_RefCap(ttot, all_regi, all_te, rlf) "capacity pathways from reference run"; + +Execute_Loadpoint "input_ref" p40_RefCap = vm_cap.l; + +p40_TechBound(ttot,all_regi,te)$( + ttot.val ge 2030 AND ttot.val le 2100 + AND (sameas(te,"windon") OR sameas(te,"windoff") OR sameas(te,"spv") OR sameas(te,"csp")) +) = max( + p40_TechBound(ttot,all_regi,te), + p40_RefCap(ttot,all_regi,te, "1")*1000 +); +** end of PRISMA Staying Alive +$ENDIF + + + *** In scenarios with 2nd generation bioenergy technology phaseout, *** switch-off biomass capacity targets of NDC if (cm_phaseoutBiolc eq 1, From 0d851dda508efe2ad63032dc3ae52a3e0541bce3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: rahelMA Date: Mon, 20 Jul 2026 09:37:09 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 2/3] correct NDC delay --- config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv | 13 +++++++------ config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv | 9 +++++---- modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/datainput.gms | 12 ++++++++++++ modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/postsolve.gms | 21 +++++++++++++++++++++ scripts/output/export/xlsx_IIASA.R | 2 +- 5 files changed, 46 insertions(+), 11 deletions(-) diff --git a/config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv b/config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv index 34ca42a10f..d585ad59e1 100755 --- a/config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv +++ b/config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ title;start;copyConfigFrom;cm_targetDelay;cm_ReferenceCapacities;cm_LTSexcludeRegi;carbonprice;carbonpriceRegi;path_gdx;path_gdx_ref;path_gdx_bau;path_gdx_carbonprice;path_gdx_refpolicycost;cm_startyear;cm_multigasscen;description;CES_parameters;slurmConfig;regionmapping;extramappings_historic;cm_rcp_scen;subsidizeLearning;cm_prtpScen;capitalMarket;cm_iterative_target_adj;cm_budgetCO2from2020;cm_budgetCO2_absDevTol;cm_taxCO2_functionalForm;cm_taxCO2_startyear;cm_peakBudgYr;cm_taxCO2_regiDiff;cm_emiscen;c_regi_earlyreti_rate;c_NearTermProjectCompletion;cm_fetaxscen;cm_bioenergy_SustTax;cm_33EW;cm_33OAE;cm_33_OAE_limit_EEZ;cm_frac_NetNegEmi;c_ccsinjecratescen;c_ccscapratescen;cm_CESMkup_build;cm_wasteIncinerationCCSshare;techpol;regipol;cm_NucRegiPol;cm_CoalRegiPol;cm_altFeEmiFac;cm_GDPpopScen;cm_demScen;cm_oil_scen;cm_gas_scen;cm_coal_scen;c_techAssumptScen;cm_nucscen;cm_so2tax_scen;cm_LU_emi_scen;cm_tradecostBio;cm_maxProdBiolc;cm_1stgen_phaseout;c_SSP_forcing_adjust;cm_APssp;cm_CESMkup_ind;cm_EDGEtr_scen;c_changeProdCost # H12 SSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate,AMT,compileInTests,calibrateSSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road.;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-NDC-LTS;1,AMT,2;;;;;NDC;netZero;;SSP2-NDC;SSP2-NDC;;SSP2-NDC;2040;2;SSP2-NDC-LTS: Long-term-strategy, this scenario follows the NDCs until 2035 and starts rescaling the carbon prices from 2040 to reach national net-zero pledges.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix4ICEban;1 -SSP2-NDC;1,AMT,2;;;;;NDC;;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;;SSP2-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 +SSP2-NDC-LTS;1,AMT,2;;;;;NDC;netZero;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-NDC-LTS: Long-term-strategy, this scenario follows the NDCs until 2035 and starts rescaling the carbon prices from 2040 to reach national net-zero pledges.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix4ICEban;1 +SSP2-NDC;1,AMT,2;;;;;NDC;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;2030;;SSP2-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 SSP2-NPi;1,AMT,2;;;;;NPi;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;NPi2018;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1; SSP2-NPi2025;1,AMT,compileInTests,2;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi reflects currently implemented policies, while fulfilling near-term feasibility and long-term plausibility assessments. Emissions trajectories are aligned with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. Carbon prices are constant in the mid- and long-term.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; SSP2-PkBudg650;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century.;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1 @@ -11,7 +11,8 @@ SSP2-PkBudg750_wo100EJBiobound;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2- SSP2-PkBudg1000;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1150 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century.;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;;75;2080;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 SSP2-EcBudg500;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2035;2;SSP2-EcBudg400: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes an end-of-century budget of 400 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2100. This is a high overshoot scenario with delayed climate policy.;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;5;500;5;exponential;70;;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;1;1;5000;0;;;;2060.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;200;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 SSP2-rollBack;1,AMT,2;;;;;none;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;;SSP2-rollBack: This rollback of climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called Middle of the Road.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;0;;;1;;;;;;;;;;none;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1;1 -SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;2030;;All countries implement current policies, NDCs (2030/2035), and Long-Term Strategies (LTS). Climate ambition follows stated national commitments, with carbon prices reflecting near-term policies and gradually increasing mitigation incentives.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;prisma;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;2030;;Climate ambition is rolled back across all countries in differentiated ways. NDC and LTS milestones are delayed by 10 years for transition leaders, 20 for diversifying economies, and by 30 for fossil-dependent economies and net-zero ambitions are weakened.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-LateReawakening;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back_2026-07-06_21.40.55/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-06_15.37.05/fulldata.gdx;2040;;Countries initially follow the rollback pathway, then resume LTS targets after a delay (around 2035–2040). Regions attempt to return to original climate objectives, requiring accelerated mitigation and possible adjustment of targets for feasibility.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-StayingAlive;1;;;prisma_SA;;exogenous;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-MeetAspirations_2026-07-07_13.42.23/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/StayingAlive/output/C_SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back_2026-07-06_21.40.55/fulldata.gdx;;2030;2;Same policy ambition as the rollback scenario, but investments in renewables, electricity storage, grid expansion, and end-use electrification remain at levels of the ambition scenario to test low-regret transition strategies.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;9;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix4ICEban;1 +SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;2030;2;All countries implement current policies, NDCs (2030/2035), and Long-Term Strategies (LTS). Climate ambition follows stated national commitments, with carbon prices reflecting near-term policies and gradually increasing mitigation incentives.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;prisma;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;2030;2;Climate ambition is rolled back across all countries in differentiated ways. NDC and LTS milestones are delayed by 10 years for transition leaders, 20 for diversifying economies, and by 30 for fossil-dependent economies and net-zero ambitions are weakened.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban; +SSP2-LateReawakening;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back_2026-07-17_08.31.45/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;2040;2;Countries initially follow the rollback pathway, then resume LTS targets after a delay (around 2035–2040). Regions attempt to return to original climate objectives, requiring accelerated mitigation and possible adjustment of targets for feasibility.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-StayingAlive;1;;;prisma_SA;;exogenous;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-MeetAspirations_2026-07-13_22.38.05/fulldata.gdx;;SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;2030;2;Same policy ambition as the rollback scenario, but investments in renewables, electricity storage, grid expansion, and end-use electrification remain at levels of the ambition scenario to test low-regret transition strategies.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;9;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix4ICEban;1 +SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back_NDC;;;prisma;;off;NDC;;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;Climate ambition is rolled back across all countries in differentiated ways. NDC and LTS milestones are delayed by 10 years for transition leaders, 20 for diversifying economies, and by 30 for fossil-dependent economies and net-zero ambitions are weakened.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 diff --git a/config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv b/config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv index ad84213def..a0c3231b8f 100755 --- a/config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv +++ b/config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv @@ -7,7 +7,8 @@ SSP2-NPi2025;1;;;;SSP2|NPI|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp4p5;y2150;1;;;0;;;0;const2030; SSP2-PkBudg1000;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp2p6;y2030;1;;;0.01;;;0.1;const2030;734;;0;0;2030;2030;2030 SSP2-PkBudg750;1;;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp1p9;y2030;1;;;0.03;;;0.3;const2030;734;;0;0;2030;2030;2030 SSP2-rollBack;0;;;;SSP2|NPI-revert|AR-natveg|nocc_hist;y2150;1;;;0;;;0;const2030;734;;0;1;2030;2030;2030 -SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-LateReawakening;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-StayingAlive;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp4p5;y2030;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC-delay|AR-natveg|rcp4p5;y2045;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-LateReawakening;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC-delay|AR-natveg|rcp4p5;y2040;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-StayingAlive;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC-delay|AR-natveg|rcp4p5;y2045;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back_NDC;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC-delay|AR-natveg|rcp4p5;y2045;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; diff --git a/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/datainput.gms b/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/datainput.gms index 6a63240391..9aefe23721 100644 --- a/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/datainput.gms +++ b/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/datainput.gms @@ -125,6 +125,18 @@ display p45_bestNDCcoverage; p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)$(t_NDC_targetYear(t)) = p45_shareTarget(t,regi) >= p45_minRatioOfCoverageToMax * p45_bestNDCcoverage(regi); +$ifThen "%cm_targetDelay%" == "prisma" +*** PRISMA Asymetric rollback +** Requires cm_NDC_version = 2026_cond: copy 2030 and 2035 targets to later years based on region delay, set 2030 and 2035 targets to 0 +p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)$(t.val eq 2030 + p45_delay(regi)) = p45_NDCyearSet("2030",regi); +p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)$(t.val eq 2035 + p45_delay(regi)) = p45_NDCyearSet("2035",regi); +p45_NDCyearSet("2070","REF") = p45_NDCyearSet("2035","REF"); +p45_NDCyearSet("2070","MEA") = p45_NDCyearSet("2035","MEA"); +p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)$(t.val eq 2030) = 0; +p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)$(t.val eq 2035) = 0; +** end of PRISMA Asymetric rollback +$ENDIF + if(p45_useSingleYearCloseTo > 0, p45_distanceToOptyear(p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)) = abs(t.val - p45_useSingleYearCloseTo); p45_minDistanceToOptyear(regi) = smin(t$(p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)), p45_distanceToOptyear(t,regi)); diff --git a/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/postsolve.gms b/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/postsolve.gms index a088905fca..4a5bbb9562 100644 --- a/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/postsolve.gms +++ b/modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/postsolve.gms @@ -55,6 +55,20 @@ p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd_iter(iteration,t,regi) = p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd(t display p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd_iter; +$ifThen "%cm_targetDelay%" == "prisma" + pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$( t.val < 2040 ) = min( pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi), + p45_CO2PriceLimitNDC(t,regi) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC); +$ifThen.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation not "%cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation%" == "off" +*** For the periods after the carbon price limit: +*** If this switch is on, limit increase by 20%/yr, but ensure the CO2 price limit (cap) is at least 200$/tCO2. + pm_taxCO2eq("2035",regi) = min( pm_taxCO2eq("2035",regi), + max( p45_CO2PriceLimitNDC("2030",regi) * (1 + 0.2 * (2035 - 2030)) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC, + 200 * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC + ) + ); +$endif.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation + +$else $ifThen.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit not "%cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit%" == "off" *** limit CO2 prices in NDC realization according to switch cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit @@ -72,10 +86,17 @@ $ifThen.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation not "%cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuatio $endif.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit_continuation ); $endif.cm_NDC_CO2PriceLimit + +$endif *** calculate tax path until NDC target year - linear increase +$ifThen "%cm_targetDelay%" == "prisma" +p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(regi) = smax(t$(t.val = p45_firstNDCyear(regi)), pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)); +pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val > 2031 AND t.val < p45_firstNDCyear(regi)) = (p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(regi) - pm_taxCO2eq("2035",regi))*(t.val-2035)/(p45_firstNDCyear(regi)-2035) + pm_taxCO2eq("2035",regi); +$else p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(regi) = smax(t$(t.val = p45_firstNDCyear(regi)), pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)); pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val > 2021 AND t.val < p45_firstNDCyear(regi)) = (p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(regi) - pm_taxCO2eq("2020",regi))*(t.val-2020)/(p45_firstNDCyear(regi)-2020) + pm_taxCO2eq("2020",regi); +$endif *** replace taxCO2eq between NDC targets such that taxCO2eq between goals does not decrease loop( p45_NDCyearSet(t2,regi) , diff --git a/scripts/output/export/xlsx_IIASA.R b/scripts/output/export/xlsx_IIASA.R index a15f67465d..7a977ca93d 100644 --- a/scripts/output/export/xlsx_IIASA.R +++ b/scripts/output/export/xlsx_IIASA.R @@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ projects <- list( renameScen = c("SMIPv04-M-SSP2-NPi2025-def" = "SSP2 - Medium Emissions", "SMIPv04-L-SSP2-PkBudg1000-def" = "SSP2 - Low Emissions"), checkSummation = "NAVIGATE"), PRISMA_WP6 = list( - model = "REMIND-MAgPIE 3.6-4.14", + model = "REMIND-MAgPIE 3.7-4.14", mapping = c("ScenarioMIP", "PRISMA"), iiasatemplate = "https://files.ece.iiasa.ac.at/prisma/prisma-template.xlsx", removeFromScen = "C_", From 088867057992404c81ebfeb5327361c06b882888 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: rahelMA Date: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 15:03:12 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 3/3] submission fixes --- config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv | 11 +++++------ config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv | 1 - scripts/output/export/xlsx_IIASA.R | 2 +- 3 files changed, 6 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) diff --git a/config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv b/config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv index d585ad59e1..7abc56e0f9 100755 --- a/config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv +++ b/config/scenario_config_PRISMA.csv @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ title;start;copyConfigFrom;cm_targetDelay;cm_ReferenceCapacities;cm_LTSexcludeRe # H12 SSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate;calibrate,AMT,compileInTests,calibrateSSP2;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi2025-calibrate: This reference policy/baseline scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road.;calibrate;14;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; SSP2-NDC-LTS;1,AMT,2;;;;;NDC;netZero;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-NDC-LTS: Long-term-strategy, this scenario follows the NDCs until 2035 and starts rescaling the carbon prices from 2040 to reach national net-zero pledges.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix4ICEban;1 -SSP2-NDC;1,AMT,2;;;;;NDC;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;2030;;SSP2-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 +SSP2-NDC;1,AMT,2;;;;;NDC;;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;;SSP2-NDC: This Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. It assumes NPi2025 until 2025 and has start year 2030. The NDC includes all pledged policies even if not yet implemented. It assumes that the moderate and heterogeneous climate ambition reflected in the NDCs at the begining of 2021 continues over the 21st century.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 SSP2-NPi;1,AMT,2;;;;;NPi;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi assumes that policies fail to achieve NDC targets in 2030. Instead, carbon prices are assumed to grow and converge more slowly, leading to emissions trajectories in line with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;NPi2018;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1; SSP2-NPi2025;1,AMT,compileInTests,2;;;;;;;;;;;;2005;;SSP2-NPi2025: This National Policies Implemented (NPi) scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The NPi reflects currently implemented policies, while fulfilling near-term feasibility and long-term plausibility assessments. Emissions trajectories are aligned with bottom-up studies on the effect of currently implemented policies. Carbon prices are constant in the mid- and long-term.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; SSP2-PkBudg650;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg650: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 650 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a 1.5C scenario, peak warming is allowed to be at or slightly above 1.5C at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 1.5C in at least 67 % of scenarios by the end of the century.;;;;;rcp20;globallyOptimal;;;9;650;;;100;2055;6;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Elec_Push;Mix4ICEban;1 @@ -11,8 +11,7 @@ SSP2-PkBudg750_wo100EJBiobound;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2- SSP2-PkBudg1000;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;SSP2-PkBudg1050: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes a peak budget of 1150 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100. This is a well below 2C scenario at median climate sensitivity but returns to values below 2C in at least 67 % of scenarios during the whole century.;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;9;1000;;;75;2080;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;2050.GLO 0.5;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 SSP2-EcBudg500;1,AMT,2;;;;;functionalForm;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2035;2;SSP2-EcBudg400: This climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 called Middle of the Road. The stylized climate policy scenario assumes an end-of-century budget of 400 Gt CO2 on total CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2100. This is a high overshoot scenario with delayed climate policy.;;;;;rcp26;globallyOptimal;;;5;500;5;exponential;70;;7;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;1;1;5000;0;;;;2060.GLO 0.9;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;200;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 SSP2-rollBack;1,AMT,2;;;;;none;;;SSP2-NPi2025;;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;;SSP2-rollBack: This rollback of climate policy scenario follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 called Middle of the Road.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;0;;;1;;;;;;;;;;none;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix1;1 -SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;2030;2;All countries implement current policies, NDCs (2030/2035), and Long-Term Strategies (LTS). Climate ambition follows stated national commitments, with carbon prices reflecting near-term policies and gradually increasing mitigation incentives.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;prisma;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;2030;2;Climate ambition is rolled back across all countries in differentiated ways. NDC and LTS milestones are delayed by 10 years for transition leaders, 20 for diversifying economies, and by 30 for fossil-dependent economies and net-zero ambitions are weakened.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban; -SSP2-LateReawakening;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back_2026-07-17_08.31.45/fulldata.gdx;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-NPi2025_2026-07-13_16.07.19/fulldata.gdx;2040;2;Countries initially follow the rollback pathway, then resume LTS targets after a delay (around 2035–2040). Regions attempt to return to original climate objectives, requiring accelerated mitigation and possible adjustment of targets for feasibility.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-StayingAlive;1;;;prisma_SA;;exogenous;;;/p/projects/prisma/WP6/submission-07-2026_V2/output/C_SSP2-MeetAspirations_2026-07-13_22.38.05/fulldata.gdx;;SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;2030;2;Same policy ambition as the rollback scenario, but investments in renewables, electricity storage, grid expansion, and end-use electrification remain at levels of the ambition scenario to test low-regret transition strategies.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;9;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix4ICEban;1 -SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back_NDC;;;prisma;;off;NDC;;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;Climate ambition is rolled back across all countries in differentiated ways. NDC and LTS milestones are delayed by 10 years for transition leaders, 20 for diversifying economies, and by 30 for fossil-dependent economies and net-zero ambitions are weakened.;;;;;;globallyOptimal;;;3;;;;;;;;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban;1 +SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;All countries implement current policies, NDCs (2030/2035), and Long-Term Strategies (LTS). Climate ambition follows stated national commitments, with carbon prices reflecting near-term policies and gradually increasing mitigation incentives.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;prisma;;off;;;SSP2-MeetAspirations;SSP2-NPi2025;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2030;2;Climate ambition is rolled back across all countries in differentiated ways. NDC and LTS milestones are delayed by 10 years for transition leaders, 20 for diversifying economies, and by 30 for fossil-dependent economies and net-zero ambitions are weakened.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix3ICEban; +SSP2-LateReawakening;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;off;;;SSP2-MeetAspirations;SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;SSP2-NPi2025;;SSP2-NPi2025;2040;2;Countries initially follow the rollback pathway, then resume LTS targets after a delay (around 2035–2040). Regions attempt to return to original climate objectives, requiring accelerated mitigation and possible adjustment of targets for feasibility.;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; +SSP2-StayingAlive;1;;;prisma_SA;;exogenous;;;SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;2030;2;Same policy ambition as the rollback scenario, but investments in renewables, electricity storage, grid expansion, and end-use electrification remain at levels of the ambition scenario to test low-regret transition strategies.;;;;;;;;;0;;;;;;;9;EUR_regi 0.08, USA_regi 0.07, CHA_regi 0.07, CAZ_regi 0.07, JPN_regi 0.07, GLO 0.06;transformative;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Mix4ICEban;1 diff --git a/config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv b/config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv index a0c3231b8f..f8946c9d3d 100755 --- a/config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv +++ b/config/scenario_config_magpie_PRISMA.csv @@ -11,4 +11,3 @@ SSP2-MeetAspirations;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC|AR-natveg|nocc_hist|rcp4p5;y2030;; SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC-delay|AR-natveg|rcp4p5;y2045;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; SSP2-LateReawakening;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC-delay|AR-natveg|rcp4p5;y2040;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; SSP2-StayingAlive;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC-delay|AR-natveg|rcp4p5;y2045;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; -SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back_NDC;;SSP2-NDC-LTS;;;SSP2|NDC-delay|AR-natveg|rcp4p5;y2045;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; diff --git a/scripts/output/export/xlsx_IIASA.R b/scripts/output/export/xlsx_IIASA.R index 7a977ca93d..c3573ecbfb 100644 --- a/scripts/output/export/xlsx_IIASA.R +++ b/scripts/output/export/xlsx_IIASA.R @@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ projects <- list( "SSP2-MeetAspirations" = "SSP2 - Meet Aspirations", "SSP2-AsymmetricRoll-Back" = "SSP2 - Asymmetric Roll-Back", "SSP2-LateReawakening" = "SSP2 - Late Reawakening", - "SSP2-StayingAlive_exo" = "SSP2 - Staying Alive"), + "SSP2-StayingAlive" = "SSP2 - Staying Alive"), checkSummation = "ScenarioMIP"), NAVIGATE_coupled = list(mapping = c("NAVIGATE", "NAVIGATE_coupled")), SHAPE = list(mapping = c("NAVIGATE", "NAVIGATE_coupled", "SHAPE")),